Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 12.622093 14.460433 16.444095 18.740054 21.320536 24.127380 27.407707
2025-03-09 9.905768 12.388611 15.278655 18.876453 23.219375 28.275687 34.590442
2025-03-16 8.340889 11.043602 14.347192 18.655076 24.093751 30.698655 39.290077
2025-03-23 7.312811 10.186175 13.853491 18.833960 25.371282 33.603560 44.689887
2025-03-30 6.694775 9.739547 13.771462 19.438407 27.123470 37.097418 50.919853
2025-04-06 5.922758 8.982192 13.178103 19.270080 27.788266 39.158518 55.339929
2025-04-13 5.034309 7.954178 12.098823 18.309633 27.254885 39.522016 57.428329
2025-04-20 4.680273 7.660180 12.016526 18.722587 28.625947 42.518816 63.233096
2025-04-27 4.357542 7.375244 11.911721 19.074315 29.902801 45.418228 69.011586
2025-05-04 3.962100 6.934432 11.528535 18.966289 30.473187 47.305700 73.397794
2025-05-11 3.578223 6.472293 11.068745 18.694250 30.758223 48.761518 77.187330
2025-05-18 3.300970 6.158241 10.813083 18.712821 31.471738 50.865471 82.008630
2025-05-25 3.077690 5.921397 10.672601 18.918873 32.511087 53.546842 87.888496
2025-06-01 2.845572 5.646922 10.447108 18.966640 33.295084 55.867748 93.320761
2025-06-08 2.598029 5.318389 10.099053 18.774686 33.659728 57.523696 97.755099
2025-06-15 2.433419 5.126704 9.971299 18.944109 34.622149 60.161255 103.843072
2025-06-22 2.349362 5.079758 10.095092 19.555425 36.356254 64.114852 112.204530
2025-06-29 2.161522 4.811380 9.793868 19.384931 36.727029 65.830871 116.965382
2025-07-06 1.888484 4.344079 9.084519 18.419733 35.641571 65.049877 117.531309
2025-07-13 1.811281 4.272711 9.120882 18.834774 37.029500 68.508483 125.347331
2025-07-20 1.732070 4.189271 9.126343 19.188446 38.318738 71.843350 133.072627
2025-07-27 1.608069 3.996559 8.900189 19.079821 38.746781 73.688933 138.293311
2025-08-03 1.477696 3.776460 8.601109 18.806322 38.846428 74.949871 142.530456